Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
